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AI Could Predict Cognitive Decline Leading to Alzheimerā€™s Disease in the Next 5 Years

Algorithms may help doctors stream people onto prevention path sooner
Published: 4 October 2018

A team of scientists has successfully trained a new artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to make accurate predictions regarding cognitive decline leading to Alzheimerā€™s disease.

Dr. Mallar Chakravarty, a computational neuroscientist at the Douglas Mental Health University Institute, and his colleagues from the University of Toronto and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, designed an algorithm that learns signatures from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), genetics, and clinical data. This specific algorithm can help predict whether an individualā€™s cognitive faculties are likely to deteriorate towards Alzheimerā€™s in the next five years.

ā€œAt the moment, there are limited ways to treat Alzheimerā€™s and the best evidence we have is for prevention. Our AI methodology could have significant implications as a ā€˜doctorā€™s assistantā€™ that would help stream people onto the right pathway for treatment. For example, one could even initiate lifestyle changes that may delay the beginning stages of Alzheimerā€™s or even prevent it altogether,ā€ says Chakravarty, an Assistant Professor in ŗ«¹śĀćĪčā€™s Department of Psychiatry.

The findings, published in, used data from the Alzheimerā€™s Disease NeuroImaging Initiative. The researchers trained their algorithms using data from more than 800 people ranging from normal healthy seniors to those experiencing mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimerā€™s disease patients. They replicated their results within the study on an independently collected sample from the Australian Imaging and Biomarkers Lifestyle Study of Ageing.

Can the predictions be improved with more data?

ā€œWe are currently working on testing the accuracy of predictions using new data. It will help us to refine predictions and determine if we can predict even farther into the future,ā€ says Chakravarty. With more data, the scientists would be able to better identify those in the population at greatest risk for cognitive decline leading to Alzheimerā€™s.

According to the Alzheimer Society of Canada, 564,000 Canadians had Alzheimerā€™s or another form of dementia in 2016. The figure will rise to 937,000 within 15 years.

Worldwide, around 50million people have dementia and the total number is projected to reach 82million in 2030 and 152 in 2050, according to the World Health Organization. Alzheimerā€™s disease, the most common form of dementia, may contribute to 60ā€“70% of cases. Presently, there is no truly effective treatment for this disease.


This work was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Natural Sciences andEngineering Research Council of Canada, the Fonds de recherche du QuĆ©becā€”SantĆ©, Weston Brain Institute, Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinsonā€™s Research, Alzheimerā€™s Society, Brain Canada, and the ŗ«¹śĀćĪč Healthy Brains for Healthy Lives - Canada First Research Excellence Fund.

The article ā€œā€ was published in PLOS Computational Biology

For information and interviews

Bruno Geoffroy
Press Information Officer - Media Relations Office
CIUSSS de lā€™Ouest-de-lā€™ĆŽle-de-MontrĆ©al (Douglas Mental Health University Institute)
Tel.: 514-630-2225, ext. 5257

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