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Interventions to prevent zoonotic spillover from bats: promises and pitfalls

Daniel Streicker, University of Glasgow
Tuesday February 11, 12-1pm
Zoom Link:Ìý
In Person: 550 Sherbrooke, Room 189

Abstract:ÌýThe economic and health ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic have catalyzed increasing interest in preventing the initial spillover of viruses from wildlife into humans and domestic animals (‘primary spillover prevention’). Yet, unforeseen behavioral or demographic responses of animals might cause interventions to backfire, increasing risk. This talk will explore how we can learn from past interventions and plan future alternatives using models derived from field and laboratory data. I will focus on the transmission of viruses in vampire bats in Latin America, which are routinely culled as part of efforts to reduce the burden of lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. First using viral genome sequencing and phylodynamic analysis, I will show how a 2-year bat cull in southern Peru altered the dynamics of rabies in bats and spillover risk to livestock. Second, using Bayesian state space models jointly fit to serological and molecular data on bat-associated H18 influenza virus, I will test whether and how culls targeting rabies incidentally altered the transmission of another potentially important virus. Finally, by parameterizing an epidemiological model from longitudinal deep sequence data, I will explore whether a naturally occurring bat-associated herpesvirus could be exploited as a backbone for a self-disseminating vaccine targeting rabies in its bat reservoir. These studies highlight the risks and benefits of primary spillover prevention and show the value of combining ecological, epidemiological and genomic data with quantitative approaches to empower data-driven zoonosis prevention.